Sunday, September 26, 2004

Our Climatic Future (Or is Global Warming Full of Hot Air)

In our the immediate climate future, the next 5,000 years, the climate will go to either global warming, global cooling, or global stay the same. Out past 5,000 years and certainly out past 10,000 years, the last scenario is no longer viable. In the long run the climate will either warm up or cool down; it always has; it always will. Eventually it will do both.

If you follow the latest in atmospheric science, global warming is the future climate. It certainly has gotten good press -- well a lot of press, any way. It's one of the great liberal causes. We need to commit to an economic diet (i.e. cut back on productivity) of lower carbon emissions by reducing the burning of hydrocarbon based fuels to slow the process of global warming.

A funny thing happened in the process to prove that the climate was warming up. By looking at past climates we could compare and see just how much things are heating up. Sounds like a good idea. Scientist took core samples from glaciers to determine the climates over millions of years and discovered just how cold the climate had been in the past three million years. It look like we were just in a warm period that occurred periodically during the ice ages.

whoops! Science will do that to you. You look for one thing and you find something entirely else. Serendipity, what a strange phenomena in science.

At any rate, if you were going to bet -- and that is what the global warmer's are asking us to do with the economy -- and you tend to believe past performance is a predictions of future behavior, then you would have to go with global cooling.

However, there is a kicker. The studies of glacier core samples seems to also indicate that the climate varies a lot more over a short period of time than it is varying now -- a lot of swings between very hot and very cold weather. We appear to be in a climate equilibrium, and the carbon loading of the atmosphere will disrupt this equilibrium causing not only global warming but some bad ass global cooling.

So, as much as I hate to admit it, the global warmer's are right -- but not for the reasons they are spouting so loudly. Gag me to the max, man.
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