Monday, March 06, 2006

02/22/06 – Beginning of Iraq Civil War

The Askariya Shrine was blown up Wednesday, Feb. 22, 2005. I want to mark that day down. Not just draw a line in the sand, but drive a stake into the bedrock. This may be the start of the inevitable civil war. I had hoped we would be out of the country before it started, but it doesn’t appear that is going to happen. We are going to get caught in the crossfire. I hope we are checking on accessible flat roofs from which a helicopter can come and go in the Green Zone.

We may need to know where they are. I trust the military will see this coming and be prepared, however, I don’t believe the current administration will see it coming. They have never been any good at intelligence – their ideology gets in the way and colors their interpretations of cold hard facts – and if they plan any emergency exit strategy, they would be admitting defeat for the Bush Doctrine in the Middle East.

I don’t want to tell you I told you so but: I TOLD YOU SO!
Here is my third post ever, July 24, 2004, in which I saw the civil war coming. And later, here shortly after in September of the same year I warn of its coming with the added point that as long as the Americans are there, Iraqis are as free as they have ever been or will be. I’ve said it many, many times and here they all are. Oh, it’s coming baby!

It feels unusual to be in a country were the inhabitants hate each other more than they hate Americans. We are dealing with ancient rivalries: Persians against Arabs, Shiites against Sunnis, both against Jews. Americans are a relatively new group to hate in this region.

The people in charge of Iran know this could get way out of hand and are trying to quell the violence as much as possible, and seem to be accomplishing that, at least, in the short run. But it’s the long run that will get you baby!

We are waiting for the other shoe to drop. There is going to be another big explosion or mass killing. Something will push the civil war further along. Eventually, it will escalate beyond anybody’s or any group’s control. Nice legacy, Bush. Of course, the right wingnuts, Rove, and Neocons will find away to blame the MSM or liberals.

And as an added bonus, this war will not be limited to just Iraq. What we need to recognize is that rather than some idealistic introduction of democracy and individual freedom into the Middle East, we have changed the balance of power among age old adversaries. The Shiites will now control Iraq or a large part of it should the civil war break up the country. They will align with Iran – if they have not already done so. (The overthrow of Saddam may have been an Iranian grand scheme to begin with. The Neocons’ naive foreign policy played right into their hands.)

The civil war may build slowly. While bombs and public attacks make a lot of noise and attract attention. Pulling someone out into the night and shooting them in the back of the head could go on unnoticed until the numbers start to add up. Even though the Sunnis are a minority, they are going to get help from the rest of the Arab world. The Whahabis – who believe the Shiites are infidels somewhat like Americans – will move across the Saudi Arabian border to aid their Sunni brothers in Iraq.

Although the Kurds are Sunnis, their treatment at the hands of Saddam and the Bath Party makes it unlikely they will join with the Sunnis. More likely, they will want to set up their own independent state. Turkey cannot allow the Kurds to form an independent state. Turkey has had its own problems with Kurdish terrorist. To them, an independent state for Kurds would be a breeding ground for terrorist. They would move militarily across their border to insure what they feel is their own security.

The civil war in Iraq could spread out to other countries in the Middle East. It seems I’m not the only one who think this is so.

Adding to all this is Iran striving to obtain the atomic bomb. That threat is greater to the Arab countries than America or Europe. If Iran gets the bomb, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and other Arab nations are going to have to do the same.

Of course in all probability the civil war will be a whole way different than I’ve pictured here. That’s what is wrong with war. It’s such an open ended equation. You should never NEVER initiate war. It never turns out anywhere near what was planned. If history is any indication, none of the possible out comes will be to the war initiators liking. You should only go to war when you don’t have any other choice.

Who knows, maybe this is the beginning of Armageddon the religious nuts have been harping about. Stay tuned.
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